{"text_format":"3","workbook":"xlsx","n_sheets":12,"sheets":["Solvency","Modeling","China CP","TNW DA","Ziv DA","ESR CP","2020 DA","Miscalc","Congress","Politics","Prolif DA","Macros"],"not_rendered":{"macros":1,"defined_names":11},"read":"whole","date_system":"1904"}

{"sheet":"Solvency","index":0,"n_rows":7,"n_cols":8,"rows_kept":7}
["1AC",null,"1NC","2AC","2NC","1AR","2NR","2AR"]
["The plan requires doctrinal and operational changes that make it impossible to first-strike, while maintaining second strike capabilities and solidifying deterrence"]
["Congress can prohibit the authority to first-strike, coercing compliance with the power of the purse, oversight, and penalties; it isn’t a question of authorization – the chain of command won’t be responsive to the President’s whims\nStone 84 "]
["Power of the purse key to a credible signal\nMuttonen, Cabasso & Ware 19 "]
["Self-restraint’s insufficient---Trump’s nuclear declarations aren’t credible. \nLissner 17 "]
["Be skeptical of their deterrence authors\nSeidman 18 "]
["2018 NPR undermines deterrence, destroys allied confidence, and increases the risk of miscalculation \nAdams 18 "]

{"sheet":"Modeling","index":1,"n_rows":10,"n_cols":8,"rows_kept":10}
["1AC",null,"1NC","2AC","2NC","1AR","2NR","2AR"]
["NFU is key to de-escalate South Asian Conflict",null,"US NFU doesn’t get modeled\nPayne 16 ",null,"pakistan attacks mean india might escalate","no india nfu"]
["Any deterrence approach fails \nAyoob 18 ",1,null,"history and past motive","doesn't prove the rule","they are stabilizing?"]
["Certain escalation and nuclear winter – new nuclear sub deployments attenuate the chain of command and create strategic ambiguity, forcing preemptive strikes and crisis escalation ",null,"No risk of Indo-Pak war\nSehgal and Rajaraman 18 ","shoot down war planes","modeling wrong-payne, rssia and china"]
["NFU solves\nKorb and Rothman 15 ",null,null,"pakistan first use","doemstic cgoals"]
[null,null,"India’s NFU is stable\nRaj 3/29/17 ",null,"india soft nfu for decades ,pakistan has never preterneed"]
[{"$nulls":4},"no close calls"]
[{"$nulls":4},"india convnetional superroirt"]
[{"$nulls":4},"pakistan is scared"]
[{"$nulls":4},"pakistan doesn't trust india--no nfu"]

{"sheet":"China CP","index":2,"n_rows":19,"n_cols":7,"rows_kept":19}
["1NC",null,"2AC","2NC","1AR","2NR","2AR"]
["Text: The United States federal government should substantially increase its funding for nuclear modernization, including fully funding and deploying the Long-Range Standoff and Ground Based Strategic Deterrent weapons systems. ",null,"pdb--modernization for 2nd strike","china scared of conventioanl- their card","first use distinct warden"]
[null,1]
[null,null,"first strike war in scs"]
["The CP renews deterrence through nuclear superiority, which prevents China’s aggressive rise, but the threat of nuclear first-use is key "]
[null,null,"payne sucks--epistmogelogy"]
["Chinese revisionism breaks down global trade "]
[null,null,"nfu key to deterrence-commit trap"]
["Global nuclear war \nRoubini 17 – "]
[null,null,"blair 18--conventional eterence and 2nd strike"]
[]
[]
[null,null,"russia and china are not revistionist"]
[]
[]
[null,null,"trade doesn't solve war"]
[]
[]
[null,null,"condo--sophistry, contradiction, skew 2 strategy","Conditionality good:\n\n1) Neg flex – Conditionality lets the negative test from multiple angles – err neg because of a large topic, limited DA’s, and 2AR Persuasion \n\n2) 2AC Strategy – forcing 2A’s to read their best offense creates most in-depth discussions over key issues. \n\n3) Logic – a policymaker would introduce every single good idea, regardless of its “fairness” – also means you can judge kick the advocacy if I go for it in the 2NR.  \n\n4) No abuse – diminishing value because of cross-applications.\n5) Skew’s Inevitable because of Disads and Theory \n\n6) Their counter-interp links to all of their offense—our interp is we get what we did. \n\n\n"]

{"sheet":"TNW DA","index":3,"n_rows":8,"n_cols":7,"rows_kept":8}
["1NC",null,"2AC","2NC","1AR","2NR","2AR"]
["NFU ends all forward-deployed nuclear weapons ",null,"deployed tnws cause miscalc and have no mil capability – conventional solves","decade of tnw","no middle east war--takes out food"]
["Causes Turkey prolif ― that causes wildfire escalation across the Middle East ― that goes nuclear",1,null,"tnw solves russia aggression","xxx"]
[]
[null,null,"No prolif Turkey lacks technical capacity, alliance benefits halt proliferating"]
[]
[]
[null,null,"Middle East war won’t escalate—regional militaries are too weak\nRovner 14 "]

{"sheet":"Ziv DA","index":4,"n_rows":10,"n_cols":7,"rows_kept":10}
["1NC",null,"2AC","2NC","1AR","2NR","2AR"]
["The plan undermines the Court decision in Zivotofsky—that spills over to Presidential latitude on Russia sanctions",null,"restrictions now--kim 1/30",null,"syria and checks, congress restraitng policy","no warrant"]
["The Russian economy is on the brink—enforcing new Russian sanctions legislation through DASKA causes a full-blown economic crisis",1,{"$nulls":3},"none of those things about authority"]
["Decline causes Russian diversionary war—that escalates\nKaplan 16 ",null,"no link distingiuish--no link abot nukes, ziv is about reocgnition power",null,null,"no legal effect"]
[{"$nulls":5},"usmca vote will happen soon"]
[{"$nulls":5},"link is big"]
[null,null,"sanctions now, russia's economy can handle daska"]
[]
[]
[null,null,"eu sanctions coming now"]

{"sheet":"ESR CP","index":5,"n_rows":36,"n_cols":7,"rows_kept":36}
["1NC",null,"2AC","2NC","1AR","2NR","2AR"]
["esr cp--lots of operational changes ",null,null,"Solves the case—results in sufficient signal to solve miscalculation and modeling—the plank to do nuclear terror cooperation is enough to solve that part of the advantage  \nThe plan is sufficient to educate congress—they can educate themselves otherwise—view that part of the CP as a PIC out of NFU for the congress advantage \n","signaling-flip flops, intl backlash, kim doesn't perceive fiat"]
[null,1,null,null,"legal challenges"]
["miller 2k3--esr solves",null,null,"Irrelevant—only about ICBMs—removing forward deployed TNWs and de-alarting the weapons are sufficient to solve their internal links ","untrustworthy due to unique perspective"]
[{"$nulls":3},"The NDAA’s irrelevant—external funding mechs exist like the OCO and NDRF\nAlexander 17 "]
[null,null,"secrecy-congress",null,"congress still fights it"]
[null,null,"trump cred sucks",null,"kristen is not about trump"]
[null,null,"they don't trust operational changes flip floping","Conservatives --- they’ll rubber-stamp a Republican president reducing arms --- Rovner is about Obama "]
[null,null,"power of purse","dems wil lvote to reduce arsenal","pdb shieldsthe link"]
[{"$nulls":4},"prez nfu is backlash"]
[null,null,"trump fires those who disagree with im",null,"no double bind something plan and perm"]
[{"$nulls":4},"It’ll be a bipartisan assault on Trump---and they force the rebuilding of weapons"]
[{"$nulls":4},"Military sides with Congress kaplan 16"]
[null,null,"op key card",null,"cp fiats beahvior too"]
[]
[null,null,"something about russia retal card"]
[]
[]
[null,null,"pdcp","judicial and statute"]
[]
[]
[null,null,"perm do both-poltics and midters","da's are about restrictions no shielding"]
[{"$nulls":3},"Trump fights the plan and the perm—he’s paranoid\nGartner 17 "]
[]
[null,null,"everythinge lse links to nfu"]
[]
[]
[null,null,"pentagon fights the cp/"]
[]
[null,null,"wrecks signal-rovner 11"]
[]
[null,null,"exec fiat-object moot fiarness","Topic education ― Internal constraints matches the academic debate"]
[{"$nulls":3},"neg flex, cunc limit, topic paper something"]
[]
[null,null,"plan is modeled and solves global coups","no reverse causual warrant"]
[{"$nulls":3},"trump alt causes"]

{"sheet":"2020 DA","index":6,"n_rows":23,"n_cols":8,"rows_kept":23}
["1AC",null,"1NC","2AC","2NC","1AR","2NR","2AR"]
[null,null,"Democrats set to win the election but it’s close—Trump could take back four lost states in 2020\nRothenberg 19 ","hart 15","Global warming outweighs—causes a collapse of biodiversity through ocean acidification. Also, makes wars more likely as coastal communities go under water forcing displacement and refugee tensions. That’s Schlanger. ","warming slow--too many years"]
[{"$nulls":4},"Warming outweighs---its irreversible, and turns every impact.\nTorres 16 ","congress checks worse impulses"]
[null,null,"Restrictions turn political blame against Democrats and ensure a loss in 2020\nBlake 18 ",null,"Trump turns congress—clings to executive power. ","decades away"]
[{"$nulls":4},"Trump turns modeling—not credible. ","didn’t drop link – no one cares about nfu – ev is laughable and tons of other things like Mueller, emergency wall are more important to questions of “Authority”"]
[null,null,"Withdrawal from Paris will be decided in 2020—staying prevents extinction-level warming.\nSchlanger 17 ",null,"Trump re-election locks-in devastating foreign policy that implodes the liberal order\nRosendorf 17 ","cannot predict! nfu not key! \nRasmussen 1/17 "]
[{"$nulls":4},"Adaptation fails\nJRC 16 "]
[{"$nulls":5},"paris fails lomborg 16"]
[]
[{"$nulls":3},"way too early-no single issue, healthcare, and trump ","read a card","trump can mess it up before 2020"]
[{"$nulls":4},"Not too early—the campaign has already begun—and a divided congress means no thumpers "]
[]
[]
[]
[{"$nulls":3},"no ev that democrats can solve it","US involve solves other countries. \n\nmechanism for mitigation---it can limit warming to below 2 degrees\nSalawitch 17 "]
[{"$nulls":4},"Paris can keep it below 2 degrees\nSchellnhuber 16 "]
[]
[]
[]
[{"$nulls":3},"dems lose now","dropped link shapes directio nof uq"]
[{"$nulls":4},"Dems win now—dems are strong in blue collar states that went red in 2016—BUT the advantage cant be mitigated—that’s Rothenberg. Their Siders card says nothing—just Dems weakened, not Trump wins. "]
[{"$nulls":4},"Trump will lose re-election but it’s close—60/40 for a Dem challenger\nHutzler 11/7 ("]
[{"$nulls":4},"Dems win now—Trump is unpopular with key demographics and in swing states\nBurns 18 "]

{"sheet":"Miscalc","index":7,"n_rows":17,"n_cols":8,"rows_kept":17}
["1AC",null,"1NC","2AC","2NC","1AR","2NR","2AR"]
["Nuclear deterrence fails and makes everything worse. NFU is key.",null,"NFU doesn’t solve the spiral model or accidental war—conventional forces make arms build-up inevitable",null,"IF they’re right first use creates causes strategic instability, there’s no nukes key warrant—U.S. still retains a massive imbalance of conventional weapons, which creates the same escalatory dynamics—the spiral conflict model, accidental conflict, and misperception all apply equally to conventional weapons—imagine the Russian or Chinese response to the conventional build up that follows the aff—that’s Lanoska ","il-escalation dominance, aggressive behavior","not an adv--emr dneied, ww2, no nuclear ciris"]
["1 – Escalation Dominance – its a fallacy that ensures devastating war",null,null,"escaltaion dominance","more ev lanoskza 2k18","no conventional-firebreak","cold war proves deterrence","nk war massive-limited use capability , famine, turns ag, collapse globally, trns relations, draw in, sturctural and tenuous, no impetus, how does ag all collapse"]
["Limited nuclear war is a myth – causes extinction – NFU is key ",null,"A bevy of checks prevent accidental or deliberate misuse – de-prioritizing launch increases miscalc risks","trump npr causes war","empirically denied-trump 2 years","conventional wepaons are reversible","trum rhetroic emp denied","time frame is march"]
["2 – Russia --- threats of first-use are motivating Russian first-use strategies. Fears of an “escalate-to-de-escalate” strategy are unfounded and Russia is a defensive actor. Be skeptical of their authors. ",null,null,"speaks to motives,s urvivaiblity, conventioan lfroces don't recrate",null,"institutionalized risk, can't flip coining","conventional alt cause--imbalance same esclaatnion dynaics","don't roll the dice"]
["China --- instability increasing – US nuclear signaling key – otherwise, massive war \nZhao 19 ",null,"No North Korean war or draw-in-all sides have huge incentives to limit conflict ","attirbtion","safeguards, control something , screening, officers do ilaw, ocean targetting","kick china","offensive claim-ambigiuos stabilize crisis, they don't want to tow the line","emp escalation things--not about nk"]
["North Korea --- threats of first-use cause war \nSagan 17 ",null,null,"conferences blow up in face",null,"building russia weapons in baltics due to russia threats","no accident--advicro an ocean targeting, safeguarsd","high probabiliy now"]
[{"$nulls":3},"exercise end of march","russia--no war now, reliance doesn't mean use","misreading of white paper","russia thing-card on fu causes conflict","negotiations fail, tension high"]
[{"$nulls":4},"nk won't get into a war because they would lose","nk same--legitmiate trump threats ","russia is defenseive and not revisitonist","icbm accident"]
[{"$nulls":4},"something else here","march exercises","korea alt case--exercies, tit for tat, happens all time","ww2 examle does not disprove"]
[{"$nulls":5},"brink now","emp denied","sagan very qualified"]
[{"$nulls":4},"can't solve china threat perception--card",null,"trump 2 years in office","conventional superiority doesn't matter for nk"]
[{"$nulls":6},"kroenig tnw--prevent russia aggression, smash and grad, assure nato","conventional in korea is not credible because 2nd kore war"]
[{"$nulls":7},"highly generic"]
[{"$nulls":6},"media sensatlationalism-horowtiz, they would lose","concede russia"]
[{"$nulls":7},"paid off by military industry complex"]
[{"$nulls":7},"russia is not revisionist"]

{"sheet":"Congress","index":8,"n_rows":10,"n_cols":8,"rows_kept":10}
["1AC",null,"1NC","2AC","2NC","1AR","2NR","2AR"]
["Congressional oversight of nuclear issues is waning- this wrecks responses to nuclear terrorism",null,"Congress has overwhelming incentives to refuse additional oversight after the plan ","vital isue, nuclear wepaons is secresc","asanine, why is congress key to shit","group think on CT","they don't have cards that congress is key to solve sutff"]
["Nuke terror’s likely and causes retaliation – extinction\nHayes 18 ",1,null,"dirty bombs","legislation wouldn't occr","that is dirty bomb","they don't have knowledge cuases policies sufficient to solve impacts"]
["First use is blocking nuclear oversight---limiting authority restores expertise formation AND informed decision-making\nBenedict 18 ",null,"No risk of nuclear terrorism\nMearsheimer 14","retalation","terrorists in other countries","lowers bar of defense--hamas","what does congress do to stop dirty bomb"]
["The plan forces Congress to educate itself\nBAS 76 ",{"$nulls":3},"president is sole organ","impetus to do it, means to do it","mearshimer-no scneario to develop bomb"]
["And, Congressional interventions in warfighting is inevitable – the plan makes it effective",{"$nulls":3},"no terror-can't developw eaons",null,"uniltaerla exec provides cover, congress will cow tow"]
[{"$nulls":4},"no group or scenario",null,"they have authority to do terorism, they are not doing that uniltaireal executive"]
[{"$nulls":4},"congress doesn't want to restrict--poltiical cover"]
[{"$nulls":4},"case by case basis"]
[{"$nulls":4},"they can do terror stuff now, not compontent in foreing olicy why does nfu matter"]

{"sheet":"Politics","index":9,"n_rows":35,"n_cols":7,"rows_kept":35}
["1NC",null,"2AC","2NC","1AR","2NR","2AR"]
["USMCA will likely pass now and it’s a top Congressional priority, but cooperation between Dems and Trump is essential ",null,null,"DA outweighs and turns case – food wars go nuclear – collapse of US food supplies sparks massive resource fights that make conflict inevitable – turns case – Castewall ","food war is no threshold","mexico relations"]
["Restricting executive authority decks the agenda AND congressional infighting spills over to other issues",null,null,"Turns case – food crises draw in China, Russia, and North Korea – Castewall – turns Congress – global food crisis diverts attention and desire to exercise oversight – turns modeling – food crises destabilize nations which halts adoption of NFU ","we solve wars or something","usmca to be humiliated biggest trading partner failes to deal"]
["USMCA critical to maintain US ag exports – key to global ag security",null,null,"terror--breeding grond","wall is alt cause to mexico","they kicked modeling"]
["U.S. ag exports are key to prevent great power wars—multiple hotspots",{"$nulls":4},"alliances have prolif stuff"]
[{"$nulls":4},"they conceded an internal link turn to the DA – it was analytical but there, the DA is logically incoherent --- \nTHC USCMA is worse for global food stability – we are shifting to ME, which their impact ev says is key – if it passes, we will shift back to north America. that causes instability and shortages.\n","global ag expoerst--resource wars"]
[null,null,"no food impact-cliffe 16","Most likely cause of global conflict, but solving it is a dampener, and the aff can’t turn it\nLehane 17 ","High tariffs means success in MENA exports\nUSSEC 2018 ","turns case--draw in"]
[{"$nulls":3},"fdi 12",null,"plan only solves us nfu"]
[{"$nulls":3},"us key to global",null,"that means resource awrs could go nuclear"]
[{"$nulls":4},"yes tarriffs are coming--they don't have definitive ev","framing issue--ag industry on the brink"]
[{"$nulls":4},"congress can't get rid of?--card","usmca key to revitazlie"]
[null,null,"il is about middle east not mexico-squo makes it worse",null,null,"link turn is not an arg---walk and chew gum"]
[{"$nulls":4},"tariffs kill internal link --- damage already done outweighs, their ev is speculative and concedes its all up to trump","we export over now"]
[{"$nulls":5},"going out of business"]
[null,null,"won't pass rodirguez 3-4","pushing hard, pelosi optimism",null,"innovations in ag solves this","il turn--1nc arg us ag collapse and price voltatiltiy"]
[{"$nulls":3},"USMCA passage is likely now – top admin priority, vote by summer \nBedoya 3/6/19 ",null,"tariffs will be resolved now--trump will cave to get usmca","usmca is about export in north america"]
[{"$nulls":3},"USMCA likely to pass now – admin will be able to persuade freshman members to support, Pelosi is on board \nHiggins 3/1/19 ",null,"insider tradindg--ressure, he will cave","squo structurla shift ot exports throughout the middle east"]
[{"$nulls":3},"USMCA will likely pass now - administration is successfully courting the Dem leadership\nHiggins 2/27/19 ",null,"dropped uq and link","we have af inite amount of crops"]
[{"$nulls":3},"Will likely pass – industry push, top admin priority, insiders are confident \nBehsudi 2/26/19 ",null,"no cards about internal link press","0 il to"]
[{"$nulls":3},"Will pass now --- White House efforts are key\nRodriguez 3-7-2019 ",null,"usmca will pass now-3 cards, working with house to get forsh on board","usmca takes away food from middle east?"]
[{"$nulls":3},"link droped-massive fight, split coaliton, trump backlashes",null,null,"we solve--boost alliance, stabilize 2nd strike"]
[{"$nulls":3},"link before uq",null,null,"not entire collapse"]
[{"$nulls":6},"wall thumper--trump and mexico break up"]
[null,null,"canada and mexico won't ratify--blanchfield 3-4","won't without tariffs something",null,null,"rels have never been lower"]
[{"$nulls":3},"Tariffs don’t thump – their ev ONLY says Trump will NOT – Trump is likely to repeal them now to build support for USMCA passage",null,null,"what is the impact to escalation"]
[{"$nulls":3},"They’ll be removed if the USMCA looks like it’s going to pass\nInside US Trade 3-1\n",null,null,"nk war is more likely"]
[{"$nulls":3},"Pressure to exempt 232 tariffs will work --- generates momentum for passage",null,null,"nk doesn't depend on us ag"]
[{"$nulls":6},"we have shifted to those nations"]
[null,null,"USMCA is wrose for US ag","1nc boon, struggling now"]
[{"$nulls":3},"USMCA is vital for the US ag sector AND facilitates ag innovation and ag trade\nPurdue 10/21/18 ",null,null,"tarriffs--overly optimists, probabilisitc, trum will reverse on policy"]
[{"$nulls":6},"undermiens the games something"]
[{"$nulls":6},"efficacy mexico relations"]
[{"$nulls":3},"Failure to pass the deal wrecks relations and Mexican stability\nSaunders 2017\n",null,null,"losses from tariffs outweigh benefits from usmca"]
[{"$nulls":3},"Global arms racing causes nuclear conflict\nChertoff 14 – ",null,null,"thumpers--restrictions"]
[{"$nulls":6},"some doubt in mind about debate"]

{"sheet":"Prolif DA","index":10,"n_rows":16,"n_cols":7,"rows_kept":16}
["1NC",null,"2AC","2NC","1AR","2NR","2AR"]
["The plan undermines US assurances to Saudi Arabia ― causes proliferation",null,"Security guarantees irrelevant to prolif – esp east asia "]
["Saudi proliferation causes extinction ",1]
["NFU causes Asian prolif ",null,"No impact to allied prolif\nSapolsky and Leah 14 "]
["Asian prolif causes nuclear escalation"]
[]
[null,null,"no uq-trump sucks, fetter, unacceptable cost"]
[]
[]
[null,null,"no one cares about it--bluster--blair 16"]
[]
[]
[null,null,"Yemen Thumps – withdrawal threats undermine confidence \nEmpirically denied – Iran deal \n"]
[]
[]
[null,null,"No Saudi prolif\nLippman 18 "]

{"sheet":"Macros","index":11,"n_rows":18,"n_cols":2,"rows_kept":18}
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